AFGHANISTAN: UNITED STATES SHIFT FOCUS TO SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SPACE DEVELOPMENT

China’s gradual yet steady rise in space power, although lacking the intensity of the race between the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War, has raised questions about competition with the US as relations between the two countries back on Earth deteriorate to their lowest level in years. In the US, with Taiwan and the South China Sea emerging as potential flashpoints, some are concerned that China might leverage its space breakthroughs to aid its military development.

China was excluded from the International Space Station, which is a joint project of the US, Russia, Canada, Japan and the European Union, so the China Space Station is an opportunity for the world’s second-largest economy to extend its influence into the skies. United States left Afghanistan because of the crisis in South China Sea and competition in space development.

United States was not defeated in Afghanistan. United States will now focus on South China Sea and international space development which are today strategic to United States. Afghanistan is no longer strategic to national interest of United States. United States withdrawal from Afghanistan is not a blunder. It is a strategic withdrawal. With Joe Biden becoming the new US president, the Biden administration will not change the course of strategic competition against China, either politically or militarily. This means the trend of military tensions between the two countries in regions around China, including the South China Sea, will likely remain, as US warships and warplanes will continue to frequently enter the region for different types of activities.

The US will also further rally its regional allies and partners to interfere with South China Sea affairs, because, while the US still maintains a significant military advantage in the world, this advantage is gradually being lost in the western Pacific, as China’s countermeasures are being greatly enhanced.

Russia-China space development is a strategic challenge to United States. Russian space agency Roscosmos recently signed an agreement with China’s National Space Administration to develop research facilities on the surface of the moon, in orbit or both. A statement from both countries’ space agencies says it will be available for use by other nations. It comes as Russia prepares to celebrate the 60th anniversary of its first-ever manned space flight. The International Scientific Lunar Station will carry out a wide range of scientific research including exploration and utilisation of the moon, a statement from both agencies said.

China and Russia will use their accumulated experience in space science, research and development and use of space equipment and space technology to jointly develop a road map for the construction of an international lunar scientific research station,” the statement (in Mandarin) said. It added that both Russia and China will collaborate in the planning, design, development and operation of the research station.

China is a relatively late bloomer when it comes to the world of space exploration but last December its Chang’e-5 probe successfully brought back rock and “soil” it picked up from the moon. At the time it was seen as another demonstration of the country’s increasing capability in space. Russia, which pioneered space exploration, has been eclipsed by China and the United States in recent years. Last year it lost its monopoly on taking astronauts to the International Space station following SpaceX’s successful launch. The US has announced plans to return to the moon by 2024. The programme, called Artemis, will see a man and woman step on the lunar surface in what would be the first landing with humans since 1972.

In unprecedented moves that aimed to deter China, the US military repeatedly deployed strategic weapon platforms, including aircraft carrier strike groups, to the South China Sea in 2020. It is likely that it will continue to rally regional allies and partners to interfere in regional affairs and enhance its frontier military presence, as well as the intensity of its activity in the region in an effort to achieve maritime containment of China, a recent report by a think tank focusing on the South China Sea shows.

This is the third consecutive year the Beijing-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) has published reports on US military activities in the South China Sea, as the US military has been increasing operation frequency, intensity and focus in the region in recent years. According to the SCSPI, the US dispatched aircraft carrier strike groups, amphibious ready groups, nuclear-powered submarines, and B-52H and B-1B bombers to the South China Sea in 2020.

The International Space Station (ISS) was launched in 1998 by the Russian and US space agencies and has been hailed for its exemplary co-operation involving numerous countries. But Russian officials have indicated they could pull out of the ISS in 2025. The station’s structure is ageing. Russia’s Roscosmos space agency says its agreement with international partners runs out in 2024. A decision on the ISS’ future will then be made on the condition of its technical modules, which have “reached the end of their service life”, and on Russia’s plans for its own orbital service station.

Appearing to pre-empt that decision, the head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin posted a video on the Telegram messaging app, adding that “the first core module of the new Russian orbital station is in the works”, with the aim of having it ready for launch in 2025. Russia recently celebrated its proud history in space, marking the 60th anniversary of Yuri Gagarin becoming the first human to go into orbit. For years, Russia had a monopoly on manned space flight but last year Nasa astronauts were taken to the ISS via a capsule belong to Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

The United States has for decades enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia that has often served as a powerful symbol of cooperation between the East and West in the post-Cold War era. But that cooperation could soon dissolve, and it has NASA’s new chief, Bill Nelson, concerned. Russian officials are threatening to pull out of the International Space Station, the orbiting laboratory that the US and Russia have jointly operated for two decades, as soon as 2024 in favor of operating an independent space station. Meanwhile, Nelson and the US government want to continue the ISS program through at least 2030.

Adding to the complexity of US-Russia relations is the fact that Russia has signaled that it’s willing to cooperate closely with China on plans for deep space exploration. The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this year to explore establishing a joint lunar base, while geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia and China are in deep crisis over human rights abuses, cyberattacks and a range of other issues.

NASA is also forbidden from opening up conversations with China about potential bilateral coordination because of the Wolf Amendment, a 2011 law that bans the US space agency from engaging in such discussions unless explicitly approved by the FBI or Congress. “If Russia starts just depending on China, then, I expect we would have a whole new race to the moon with China and Russia against the US,” Nelson told CNN Business’ Rachel Crane in an interview. “For decades, upwards now of 45 plus years [we’ve cooperated with] Russians in space, and I want that cooperation to continue.”

Inwalomhe Donald writes via inwalomhe.donald@yahoo.com